I will try to collect all the different ways that our dearest players think the dice are manipulated. "when I get to a rating of about 300 the dice change" "last for about 3 days ... dice then go in my favour" "get a roll that forces a blot ... your opponent will hit you even if it takes a 6/5" "at the start of every game i play my opponent roles a double. this happens in every game i play." "my opponents seem to role double 6s all the time" "dices will come as administrator wants" "I've had 6 & 6 3 times in a row .... he got 6 & 6, then 5 & 5, then 4 & 4 and finished off with 3 & 3 ... Now, tell me that's random!" "you cant win a game for about 10 games and then you cant lose for 10" "game dice in the way make the game more attractive than like a real game" "It it so predictable, it is not even fun to win when the match is so one sided." "I can guess what numbers will show so my opponent can win, even up to the last 5 throws" "when you are winning your opponent will get several doubles in a row while you roll 2,1 and 3,1 over and over" "There seems to be a series of uncommon rolls that occur regularly at specific times" "u get 2-1, 3-1, 4-1 while ur opponent gets 6-6, 4-4. 5-6" "It can't be random that in three games one starts with 2 doubles." "the algorithm is NOT random, but it's based on previous games." "get up to around 200 points then every game i play they will get doubles upon doubles and even more doubles" "One time someone got three doubles sixes in a row and the probablility is 1 in 46000." "Opponents have been getting 4-6 sets of doubles." "A couple of days ago, a player got three sets of double sixes." "I studied probability in grad school and these are impossible results." "When my opponent is open, I can't hit them but they hit me everytime I am open." "I have seen players get two sets of doubles in the first two rolls." "giving the other players 3 times as many doubles. Its a joke" "when I play lower rated players than me, I lose more frequent" "when a player is new to the site the dice can be more forgiving for them" "the dice try to even out the game by giving doubles to the opponent" "One thing for sure: the opening rolls are overwhelmingly 3-1, 4-2, and 6-1. " That's it for now, I have no doubts that there will be plenty more to come ;) OP
Fixed dice
Posted in
Backgammon
Fixed dice
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Excellent collection of nonsense. Please keep it updated. I was particularly impressed by the statement: "I studied probability in grad school and these are impossible results." What is highly probable is: 1) he didn't study at all or 2) he had a bad teacher. Make your choice. When dice are involved there are no "impossible results" but more or less probable results. People should be educated to distinguish between "not probable" and "impossible".
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Some more: "noticed that the software detects the single checkers and somehow cheats. You can adjust the difficulty level. In fact you adjust how much the game will cheat." "I can tell you that the games are written in such a way that to make the games more interesting and make it worthwile playing. I am sure that most software games including this web site is written with this thinking. Most probaply the game engines are copied from each other"
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The best is when in the game they are accusing me that I am the one who is making such dices. Cheater! - they say (in all the versions, some pretty juicy). :D Of course, when double comes to them, they are just - quiet. :) I'd like to answer on such childish accusations with link on this topic, but unfortunately, it's impossible to paste text in chat line (who will write link so many times, to much work for nothing).
Its not entirely accurate to say that people are seeing different ways that the game is not absolutely random. What these people are seeing is the system deciding on some unknown criteria who will win and then ensuring that that player receives the throws that will make that win a reality. That there are a multitude of different ways to give that assistance is neither here nor there. For example, I've just played a game where I'd managed to get the opponent into a situation where three pieces were trapped with the only 'escape' throw being 1,6. And then guess what...he/she throws 1, 6 three times running to escape and turn a nearly hopeless position into an unloosable position. Now the chances of throwing 1,6 three times running are 5832 to 1. Not impossible but unlikely. The chances of throwing it when its the ONLY way to win....well who knows? (Number of stars in the universe squared?...Perhaps) So occam's razor applies. What is the simplest explanation for this and the many other similar occurrences? Was this player just lucky beyond all reason or did the system perhaps offer a helping hand? It would take a lot to convince me it wasn't the latter.
I once playing paso Ingles throwed a 2 and 1 umteen times, and they made me change the dice, I cleaned every body out
Operater I like your reflexions you could teach them to go my way when in trouble, When playing where i can handle them I kiss them, bless them here it's to impersonal , Im sure it upsets them!
Maybe not a fixed dice but form seems to play a big part. Quite often I'm either winning a lot of im losing a lot. My rating score usually fluctuates between 140 and 490, and im sure im not the only one. Does anyone look at an opponents form before playing them? Might be a good idea playing somebody with a few losses in a row rather than some who has just won a few *32 games.
My record was 880 points. Then suddenly I went down to 100. Then I've got 682 points. And then I lose, only lose, ONLY LOSE down to ZERO! Whatever I did, I lose. Is it possible? Yes, it is, but it's so absurd, so unlikely, so amazing!!! I really don't believe that FlyorDie dices are ramdom!!!
I can't believe this thread is still alive. Everyone complaining about this needs to take a class in probability/statistics. The developer is never going to be able to "prove" that the dice are not loaded. And in a large user base, there are always going to be people having perceived a run of bad luck who will complain about it. Stop making ridiculous "conspiracy theory" type accusations!
The other day my son came over and we played backgammon, he is used to playing on "fly-or die"; he was totally gobsmacked at the dice results he got with real dice and said if he had got similar rolls on the computer he would have suspected fixed dice Mind you , I'd still like to know how some of those guys get the really high ratings!
I have seen to many strange dice throws to believe in a random generator. Sorry. It was ok for s long time, but it seems to me that after the rules was changed, and then changed again, the generator stopped being random. So we are talking like 3 month of a lopsided dice
Don't frustrate yourself. The dice throw CAN NOT BE RANDOM. We are just wasting time here. Having played enough number of games I would say without hesitation that * The dice throw can not be random * The server sees the single stones and gives dice accordingly. This happens too many times to believe otherwise. * I believe that the server balances win - loss ratios somehow. * It not possible by any probability to lose 6 or 7 consecutive games and the all dice you get is almost the same during 6 or 7 games * The most unlikely dice is given to your opponent at the most crucial moment which becomes a game changer. Come on !! * Please don't say the dice throw probability is this and that. Let's not be naive about this. After having played enough games one starts seeing the pattern. * the game is probably a derivative of a PC game where you can play against the PC and win or lose. It feels like the server somehow meddles with the game. * I can only come to a conclusion that the software designer has done a good job of writing this game not to upset any player, experienced or novice by balancing the win - lose ratios, so that no one emigrates this web site. Otherwise the novice players will move away quickly. * The more player there is the better for the web site. * We are frustrated with the current set up. * Please OPERATOR do something about this. Thanks for reading and I hope my message is not deleted by the OPERATOR.
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I completely agree that the server messes with the dice. So many 'unlucky' rolls to be just bad luck.
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Really hate this game when I'm on a losing streak, like the one I'm on now. I must be really terrible at the game. Can't wait till next week for when I'm unbeatable again.
So just to be clear - all of you "conspiracy theory" people are saying that the dice are not random, implying that the operator has written a complex dice algorithm just to f*** with the players. So this "conspiracy" program would have to do two things: 1. Decide whether or not you are "due" for a winning or losing streak, and then 2. Ensure that your dice rolls result in an appropriate win or loss. Both of these tasks are certainly possible, but would require an extra amount of effort for the development of this site. Neither would be simple to calculate. Additionally, there would have to be some motivation to do this. It seems unlikely that the programmers would take all the extra effort to mess up only one game on the otherwise fair game site FlyOrDie. Sure, it's possible the dice are fixed, but it's very unlikely and doesn't make any sense. It's also impossible to disprove because none of us will ever have the source code to the game. But maybe I'm wrong... Man never walked on the moon, 9/11 was faked, and FlyOrDie Backgammon has fixed dice.
There is no conspiracy about this and nor it is difficult to write down a simple algorithm to hit single stones most of the time . That's all you need and this becomes the game changer, to detect and hit the single stones and the rest follows naturally. Had the dice throw be absolute random than the game would only work for the veteran player, hence the novice will not survive. From the Flyordie site point of view it makes the game more exiting to hit single stones and keep all participants in the game. This makes sense why the dice throw should be fixed. But if you are looking for a honest game and true random dice throw like me you would be disappointed here.
Let me make sure I have this theory straight: FlyOrDie wants to make the game more popular, so they go to all the extra trouble to rig the dice to make the game annoying. I just don't follow the logic of how this would ever make any sense.
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Can you explain this! I am hit. 6 and 2 is full. And i roll "6-2" for three times! Three times! And i can't enter. You say it's random to roll 6-2 for three times to enter????
"Random" definitely does not mean that you will surely get 1, 3, 4, or 5 in three throws. Otherwise it would NOT be random. "Random" will sometimes include unexpected or unwanted events that might seem "unnatural" for those who have superficial ideas about randomness.
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Excellent addition to this list from one of our players by email: "1. Lots of times it begins with 3-1 2-4 6-1 3-5 2-4. 2. There are repeating series of numbers, like if it gives 2-4 it is more likely to be repeated again in the same hand. 3. Sometimes for 3 or 4 time you got a pair of 1-1, or 4-4 which cannot be random in no way. 4. It happens a lot that if you hit the other players stone and if the higher places are full like 6 , then it will give him 6-6 or so. 5. And finally many times it gives the exact set of numbers to hit a sole stone with the distance more than 6 , like 8 or 9 which cannot happen at this rate. Finally there are times it favors one opponent over the other."
"Finally there are times it favors one opponent over the other" Obviously this is a ridiculous point to make. But the game definitely goes against you or in your favour far too many times in consecutive games. Sometimes you play the most random moves and you will still win. I do believe in sports you can make your own luck, or an aura of invincibility can surround a player or team but this is a game based on dice and the opponents don't know each other. Many players have a win/loss ratio close to 1.00 or a little above, never have i seen a player with 2/1. This indicates to me that there are few players that are exceptional or "master" of the game but the game gives people hot and cold streaks to keep them playing. A bit what like BlackSmoke was saying. I fully realise that somebody must win and somebody must lose, but for either of these to happen in a number of consecutive game (8 plus, not 2 or 3) is unrealistic. A simple question, has either FlyorDie or OPERATOR got a profile that they have played 1000+ games on?
I am sure the way your game dice is not Correct. It is simply not random. . i have a solution to show that : In the game "GO" on your website, there is a button " SGF " which gives the record of the game. I think you better to put that same option so every one can see what is happening in the game.
Dear Battle Royale :
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The post was emailed by me and i don't need to play +1000 games on your website :
1st. Because iv played it with real board and Dice, so I know how things happens in real.
2nd. The simple mathematics can shows you the problem which i will discuss later.
By the way to have proofs i suggest you put a " SGF " button on the game so every one can have his "Record of the Game".
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Here i give you some simple explanations :
A. In real game / Dice : each dice comes with the chance of 1/6 so each pair got a 1/36 . There are two pair ( like [x-6] & [6-x] )
So we have{ 1/36 or another 1/36 } = 1/18, for, x-6 alone.
( Or it can be said the probability of having a 6 is like 1/18).
It is the same for any other pair.
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In your site the game does not Goes this way.
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B. Think of hitting a sole stone in the distance 6 :
You can have { 1-6, 6-1, 3-3, 2-4, 4-2, 5-1, 1-5 }
So many ways to do that and the probability is something near 2/3 But : in for the distance 9 we got only : {3-6, 6-3, 4-5, 5-4, 3-3}
it makes it this way => 5/36.
And if you have numbers 6 or 5 closed you the probability would be like 1/12.
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Still in game with more frequency you hit or got hit in those places.
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C.
in real game each games " Dice " would be justified by its own, like, if you got some 3-1 1-5 2-3 1-2 , then in the rest the probability of have a 1 or 3 is lower than others. it is called conditional possibility. Yet in the game the otherwise is seen !!!
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It think it is because the game justifies the whole dicing at site at same so " The dice and numbers get packed."
that means , gathering the whole numbers of site you can see an even distribution ( IF IT is AT ALL Distributed EVENLY.) and in each game the numbers get packed so see repetitions, and that means IN ONE GAME the numbers are not random any more.
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In the end If you have provided the users some record of their games, which i mean the "Dice's and Moves " of each game, then it would be more clear what is really going on.Correction : 1/18 that was special pair of number like 1 & 6 or 6 & 1 . for having any 6 it is like 1/3. and for having sum of 6 it is close to 2/3.
You got the numbers wrong: getting a direct 6 has a probability of 11/36, not 1/18. "hitting a sole stone in the distance 6" is not close to 2/3, rather 17/36 which is less than 1/2. hitting a sole stone in the distance 9 is really 5/36. Have you made any measurement that how much is it in our game? By saying that "3 or 4 time you got a pair of 1-1, or 4-4 which cannot be random in no way." it makes it quite obvious that giving you a sgf file would be quite useless, if you find such events impossible. Actually it would not be random if it did not happen occasionally. Feel free to record your games with a video capture software to show us if it is happening way to often. "1. Lots of times it begins with 3-1 2-4 6-1 3-5 2-4." Feel free to record your games again. If any of your games will start with these five pairs in this order, you will get eternal VIP status. "Finally there are times it favors one opponent over the other." That's why is called random. If the dice were evenly distributed throughout a match, it would NOT be random.
"C. in real game each games " Dice " would be justified by its own, like, if you got some 3-1 1-5 2-3 1-2 , then in the rest the probability of have a 1 or 3 is lower than others. it is called conditional possibility. Yet in the game the otherwise is seen !!!" In order to clear up "conditional possibility": "What is the probability of a 6 IF you have got a 6 previously" It's 1/6 "What is the probability of a 6 IF you have got two 6's previously in a row" It's 1/6 "What is the probability of a 6 IF you have got 10 6's previously in a row" It's 1/6 "What is the probability of a 6 IF you have got 10000000000000 6's previously in a row" It's 1/6 So, "in the rest the probability of have a 1 or 3 is " THE SAME. You may want to roll a virtual dice here:
http://www.random.org/dice/
Dear Flyordie
Sorry for my bad English
And sorry not to be accurate :
A :
By X-6 I didn't meant straight 6 on each side, any special pair of number with a 6 like :
The probability of [ 1 & 6 or 6 & 1 ] simply it is 2 pair in 36 pair of numbers. That makes the possibility of 1/18.
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but for any pair of [ any number & 6 or 6 & any number ]
it is 11/36. ( still near and below 1/3 ).
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& i wanted to say it happens with more frequencies " IN RELATIVE TO GAME PLAY AND SITUATION"
B :
It is true , shot the number 6 you need one on these :
{ 2-2 , 3-3 , 5-1 or 1-5 , 4-2 or 2-4 + any 6 }
1/36 + 1/36 + 2/36 + 2/36 + 11/36 = 17/36 , it is near 1/2 and still much higher comparing to 5/36 for hitting " 9 ".
and i think it is still more repeated than it should be " ACCORDING TO GAME PLAY for hitting a sole stone. "
C :
SGF would not be useless :
2 times 3-5 means 1/18 * 1/18 = 1/324.
3 times pair of 1-1 is alike 1/36 * 1/36 * 1/36 = 1/46656.
if this set of numbers happens just once that would be fine but what you call it when you see these things frequently ????????
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My numbers maybe have not been exact but the logic behind them is true.
How can i collect may game records ??
That is why i believe SGF button is essential.
So every one can see what things are really happening.
Dear DEVELOPER Please, imagine we are playing dice, with just 1 dice. We roll 2 times and we bet on a " double 6 ". 1. What is the possibility of having two 6 in the set ??? . 2. Then what is the possibility of having number 6 in 2nd roll Just IF you had the number 6 in the 1st roll ??? . 3. Ok , then let me bet you wont get a 6 after 10 rolls which in all you have already had 6 ? . &. And now we rolls 1000 times. As it is wished by you. If you got 500 roll of 6 , then in the rest the frequency of 6 must be much lower, otherwise we wont see an even distribution of numbers. & by the bigger numbers we should see a better distribution. . It is simple and straight.
"1. Lots of times it begins with 3-1 2-4 6-1 3-5 2-4." Feel free to record your games again. If any of your games will start with these five pairs in this order, you will get eternal VIP status. Best comment yet
Genius!!
"3 times pair of 1-1 is alike 1/36 * 1/36 * 1/36 = 1/46656." that is true if you roll only 3 times. During a backgammon match there are several rolls, and there are usually maybe 4-5-6 doubles per player per match. Let's suppose there are 10 all together. If you have a double already, chances are 1/36 that you will get the same in the next roll, and 1/36 * 1/36 (1/1296) that you will get it in the next two rolls, making it three in a row. So we have 1/1296 chance for every double that happens ~10 times in a match, which gives that there is a ~1/130 chance that you will see the same double three times in a row during a match, as opposed to 1/46656, which is not an insignificant difference. In peak hours, there are ~200 ongoing matches simultaneously on our server, so probably one or two of them has the "3 same doubles in a row" event, which you classified as "cannot be random in no way".
"3. Ok , then let me bet you wont get a 6 after 10 rolls which in all you have already had 6 ?" "If you got 500 roll of 6 , then in the rest the frequency of 6 must be much lower, otherwise we wont see an even distribution of numbers." random does not mean "even distribution of numbers" in the short run. You have the same 1/6 probability of rolling a 6, even after a straight 500 roll of 6's. The probability of the result of a dice roll is independent of any previous roll. We "expect" the outcome of consecutive dice rolls to alternate between the six numbers much more than they really do. We easily mistake long series of consecutive results, or clusters, as patterns when they are in fact truly random. To the untrained eye, this makes random results appear to be 'fake', and fake results seem more 'real'. It is a common activity among math teachers when teaching students probability theory to ask them to flip coins 100 times and record the results. They can usually easily tell who 'faked' the results, and whose results are 'real'. The real results will usually contain long series of consecutive results, 5, 6 maybe even 7 consecutive heads or tails. 'Fake' results will contain only series of two or three consecutive heads or tails. 5-6-7 consecutive heads might seem unrealistic for the untrained eye. For a dice roll, the numbers are 'a bit' different, as there are 6 possible outcome (or 36 for double dice), but getting the same roll 3 times in a row is definitely not impossible, and will happen 'frequently' if you play many games regularly.
> Dear DEVELOPER > Please, imagine we are playing dice, with just 1 dice. > We roll 2 times and we bet on a " double 6 ". > 1. What is the possibility of having two 6 in the set ??? > . 1/36 > 2. Then what is the possibility of having number 6 in 2nd roll > Just IF you had the number 6 in the 1st roll ??? > . 1/6 > 3. Ok , then let me bet you wont get a 6 after 10 rolls which in all you have already had 6 ? > . > &. And now we rolls 1000 times. As it is wished by you. > If you got 500 roll of 6 , then "in the rest the frequency of 6 must be much lower, otherwise we wont see an even distribution of numbers. > & by the bigger numbers we should see a better distribution. > . > It is simple and straight. NO. "in the rest the frequency of 6 " will be NOT lower UNLESS it's a fake random series. Sorry, but you don't understand conditional probability and random event independence, if you truly believe the opposite. The probability of the event "500 rolls of 6 in a row" is 1/6^500 (~8.4e-390) The probability of the event "501 rolls of 6 in a row" is 1/6^501 (~1.4e-390) However, the probability of a 6 AFTER "500 rolls of 6 in a row" is 1/6. You may classify the probability of 1.4e-390 as impossible. However, if you have already rolled 500 6's in a row, then you are just experiencing a very rare event with a probability of 8.4e-390. So, if you roll another 6 after 500 6's that's not a miracle. It will happen one time out of 6 on average: if you roll 500 6's in a row many-many times then you will experience that you will roll another 6 in 1/6 part of the cases.
Dear DEVELOPER Ok , Lets Just forget the conditional probability and so on and Please think of Distributions. 1_ if there are 100 rolls, how many 6 do you expect to have in all ??? and now, 2_ think you already have had 16 roll of 6 in the first 50, What the possibility to have another 16 in other 50 would be ??? . 3_Think of natural distribution , what would be the possibility of something happens with the 2x of times in a set of dice ? . The thing i am talking about is that Maybe " According to Special Situation's " in the game the frequencies are not distributed evenly while in the whole it is adjusted to be normal. . To Find out the truth there is just one way : to have game records.
Dear Battle Royal
There are 36 pairs of numbers in total { 6 * 6 } , which i suppose the game starts more frequently with set of numbers : { 1-6, 6-1, 3-1, 1-3, 2-4, 4-2, 3-5, 5-3 }
And by that i mean it is more than 10/36.
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Im sure in my past games iv seen that effect , but to find out that SGF of the games is needed. i offer the site puts that option in the games.@ Flyordie : of course by coins it happens to see 5 times tail in a row , it is because there are only two options : 1 __ Head or tail, and each has 1/2 of probability and in a row you may have 1/2^5 = 1/32 , which in 100 place ( to have a such a set in 100 throw makes it highly possible. BUT even 1/130 is not likely to happen many times, which i feel i does on this site. ( Thinking of 60 rolls of dice, 6 set of pairs [1-1, 2-2,...], and 1/6 their probability ---> 1/36*1/36*1/36*60*6 = 1/130 ). . 2__ There also other pairs happen frequently / pair of pairs : ( 60 rolls, 1/18*1/18 for each pair, 15 special pairs ) 1 time of a special pair : 1/18 * 1/18 * 60 = 60 / 324. 2 times happens : [1/18^2]*30 N times : [1/18^2] * 60 * N N times for any pair : [1/18^2] * 60 * N * 15. & for triple of the pairs : [ 1/18 ^3] * 60 * N * 15. Of course it seems legitimate to have such pairs in a game , But please follow to num 3 : . 3__ Supposedly , the site generates Lots of " Random " numbers based on a " Randomness Extractor " , using some entropy or something, giving a " Uniform distribution (discrete) " ... and Bla, Bla, Bla :
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Randomness_extractor
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uniform_distribution_(discrete)
But still they are things remaining : They way you distribute dice got some problems, they are patchy or granulated. I mean : there is normal to witness fluctuation in random numbers, but the way this happens is different, the number and fluctuations are inevitable but the greater they get the bigger sample you need to have an even " uniform distribution " , < alike of comparing a harsh noise to fair noise, with harsher noise you have greater wave legnts> , . In the Game with real dice It is much finer and more even that of this site , So numbers are distributed better, and gameplay is much more enjoy-full. Moreover IN SMALL SAMPLE NUMBERS it is a wast difference BUT STILL IN LARG SCALE SAMPLES you loose to see the difference. So, not being enough to examine large scale samples of the site, one also should examine the fluctuations. < like comparing sand to dust from a mile a way versus microscope !!!> I think this why lots of times Dice sets get packed : Fo example please compare these 2 sets : [ 2-2, 2-1, 3-5, 6-6, 1-1 ] & [ 2-1, 2-3, 6-1, 1-5, 2-6 ]. as you see taking any pair as a special one [ 1-6 & not 6-1] each set has the same probability in 5 roll, but the first one is kind of odd in real game play. ALL i mean is total randomness in the whole site is not enough : A. Hence any game should be fitted and adjusted even. B. The numbers doesn't get clumped.s C. & that they are ways to hide inside these fluctuations, like hitting a sole stone if needed. But if there was a way to get the frequencies of hit a sole stone "Accordingly to a Situation " then we could see what really is going on. . . With best Regards.
There is not much point in continuing this discussion if you cannot accept basic probability theory facts. I can only repeat myself: if you see too many "four consecutive 1-1 or 4-4 doubles", please get a screen capture utility, record your games, and show us. It will not take too much time if your conceptions are true. Please post your further comments in the other thread opened by you. Thank you.
> Dear DEVELOPER > Ok , Lets Just forget the conditional probability and so on and You can't forget conditional probability. It's all about conditional probability. Rolls of a dice are perfectly independent from each other. This means that the probability of an outcome is the same as the conditional probability of that outcome. Actually, that's the definition of event independence. The dice doesn't have a "memory". It does not know what values it rolled previously. > Please think of Distributions. > 1_ if there are 100 rolls, how many 6 do you expect to have in all ??? > and now, Talking about distributions doesn't make any sense over 100 rolls. It makes sense over millions and billions of rolls. And even then, laws of probability tells you only the average of outcomes will CONVERGE to the probability. It doesn't say it will be EXACTLY the probability. > 2_ think you already have had 16 roll of 6 in the first 50, > What the possibility to have another 16 in other 50 would be ??? The first 50 rolls does not have ANY impact on the second set of rolls. You don't have a deck of cards, so when you deal 4 aces in the first set you cannot deal another ace in the second set. Counting may work in blackjack, but not in dice games or roulette. Casino goers could tell a lot about this misconception. > 3_Think of natural distribution , what would be the possibility of something happens with the 2x of times in a set of dice ? I don't understand your question. What happens "with the 2x of times in a set of dice"? If you are asking if the exact same event happens once again, it's probability can be calculated. But a low probability won't guarantee it won't happen at all. > The thing i am talking about is that Maybe " According to Special Situation's " in the game the frequencies are not distributed evenly while in the whole it is adjusted to be normal. The rolls don't have to be evenly distributed over 20-30 rolls. Real dice rolls won't be either. This is what you are saying: You examine 10-15 rolls and then make a statement: based on the previous rolls this or that next outcome is impossible. What you are doing is predicting the outcome of the next roll (ruling out outcomes is a prediction too, actually, everything is prediction that beats the probability of an outcome). If you are able to predict dice rolls then you are psychic and you can collect the $1million reward
http://www.skepdic.com/randi.html
Let's simplify this to a single dice: you see the rolls 1,2,3,4,5 then you say the next roll must be a 6 because it has to be evenly distributed. Well, 1/6 of time it will be 6. > To Find out the truth there is just one way : to have game records. You are free to record your games. Here on flyordie, there are 500k backgammon rounds in a month. In a single round there are 2x20-30+ rolls, say 50 on average. That means 25 million dice rolls in a month. Based on probabilities: - that means approx. 694000 double 6's in a month - that means approx. 19290 2-long double-6 series in a month - that means approx. 536 3-long double-6 series in a month - that means approx. 15 4-long double-6 series in a month - that means approx. 0.4 5-long double-6 series in a month (which scales up to 5 over a year) - that means approx. 2.5 5-long same-double series in a month - that means approx. 3215 5-long any-double series in a month - that means approx. 0.4 3-long any-double followed by a 3-long any-other-double series in a month (which scales up to 5 over a year) So you record a game where you see a "5-long double-6" series or a "3-long any-double followed by a 3-long any-other-double series" and say that's NO WAY random because it has a probability of 1/(36^5) = 1/60.466.176 ??? Any of these should happen 5 times a year on average. Which means there can be a year when it won't happen at all, or it can happen 10+ times.
Can't FlyorDie see the discontent players regarding the fixed dice issue? There is no doubt that there is a need to review the source code to the software. Had couple of players complained this issue would have been a personal issue but this has become a wide spread issue. And all participants are being made aware. Why is the reluctance in Flyordie rectifying the software? Are you hiding something? Is there a purpose of stretching this issue? Fly ore die recently changed the allowed playing times an the way doubling the points. All is possible if the aim is to provide a honest game play. I have recently visited other backgammon web sites an can tell you that this issue is not even visible in the game play. Why not get things right here?
Other Topics with the same subject :
http://forum.flyordie.com/thread.jsp?forum=48&thread=58985&tstart=30&trange=15
.
http://forum.flyordie.com/thread.jsp?forum=48&thread=37031&tstart=15&trange=15
.
http://forum.flyordie.com/thread.jsp?forum=48&thread=58489&tstart=45&trange=15
.
http://forum.flyordie.com/thread.jsp?forum=48&thread=58166&tstart=60&trange=15
.
http://forum.flyordie.com/thread.jsp?forum=48&thread=35720&tstart=75&trange=15
The rolls are obviously not random. Highly improbable roles are frequent and the combinations are far too often exactly the perfect role to be legitimate. When a system consistently stacks the odds, one has to ask who benefits. This is my first post but I see that many other players are also frustrated by this situation. It's all well and good for players to vent their frustration but what are the administrators doing to address these serious issues?
"one has to ask who benefits" good question. Also, if you look at all the conspiracy theories in this thread, it seems obvious that it would be quite near impossible to program a dice to fulfill all of these that has been brought up here, don't you think. Until someone will take the burden and record their games (see second post here
http://forum.flyordie.com/thread.jsp?forum=48&thread=58985
as an example) to show those "frequent highly improbable" rolls, we have to assume that those who question the randomness of the dice might have some difficulties in understanding what "random" is. Like the example above, when a player explicitly states, that rolling 1-1 three times in a row would be impossible with a random dice.
Dear Flyordie : I wont discuss the dice possibility here, but the thing is its highly improbable & that we feel the frequency of those situations is more that what it should be. By they way, how someone could record my games ???
So many discontented messages from fellow players , so many similar experiences are expressed here with regards to the ‘cheating’ ‘fixed dice’ or ‘not random dice’ and the ‘meddling issues’ one must be either blind or insensitive to see this ever growing issue. I can’t comprehend the operators / administrators attitude of not doing anything but trying to dampen the complaints and questions with dice throw probabilities and diverting the subject to conspiracy theories. There is no conspiracy theory here, it a matter of how the software or the source code is written. It may not have been written properly or written for a purpose, but definitely it is not fair or random. With the ingenuity of the software creators anything is possible nowadays. The game play was recently tweaked. The waiting time was reduced from 60 seconds to 15 seconds and the doubling facility was reduced from x32 down to x4 maximum and other similar things. So it is possible to tweak the software in any direction one wishes. There is no magic here. Why is the FlyorDie team not being active and putting things right without delay? The ultimate question is, do you wish to have more happy people playing a fair game at FlyorDie or do you wish to rely on your fixed game play to keep people at a lurch and vacate the room eventually? I know for sure that many fellow players who don’t necessarily write here are looking out for an alternative web site to migrate to because of the above reasons.
"so many similar experiences" in fact you got it wrong. There are so many DIFFERENT experiences expressed here, that probably even only two of you could not agree in what way are the dice "fixed" exactly. "dampen the complaints and questions with dice throw probabilities" it is quite clear from some of the complaints here that most players complaining about the dice do not have the faintest idea about probabilities for different rolls, they just "feel" that this and this should happen less/more frequently. So I kindly ask you again for the 1000th time. If you say that the dice are not random, it means that you suspect there is a well defined pattern programmed in the dice throw. If you know there is, it would not be a problem to state exactly what is this pattern, then show us that it is happening indeed. Until then you can check some related pages that shows it is not the only site that have players with this type of "problems":
http://www.backgammoned.net/backgammon-articles/how-random-are-the-dice-used-in-online-backgammon.html
http://www.paulspages.co.uk/bgvaults/tips/dicerolls.php
The ultimate question is: do you want us to fix the dice so that highly improbable events will happen less frequently? do you want us to fix the dice so there will be no more 4 doubles in a row any more? do you want us to fix the dice to distribute it evenly even for a single game? do you want us to fix the dice so all players will get the same rolls exactly?
@ Dear Flyordie : at the time i was reading on the site you provide me and that it is really useful . So let me ask you if which way you are using to generate random numbers ?????
When are we going to see the changes to the game? Why is it not corrected yet? Any reason why the delay?
fly or die is a joke. your system keeps the game close then last chips are going off the board... he has four left and i have one after my turn and every time guess what?!! double sixes he wins ...... what a waste of time if you are dictating the game for us... who do you think you are god? POUND IT. and have a great day.
To all the conspiracy theorists on here: Have you tried recording the statistics? Or are you just basing your beliefs on what you
seem
to remember? I notice there are plenty of accusations, but no data to back it up. Big surprise. In all games with an element of chance ever invented, losers have whined of conspiracy theories. See any poker forum. Same pattern: bad players never look in the mirror, something else must be the cause of their losing. Yet they never post statistics to back up their claims. (It's even dumber in poker because they have all the hands automatically stored on their own computer if they ever wanted to actually look at the data.)
I keep track of it all the time. It's not always "fixed" in the other player's favor - it's just as often "fixed" in my favor. That's why it's so ridiculous. Is it really fun to win a game when you are clearly being given choice rolls? No - that's why I often purposely expose all my pieces and guess what - the game becomes competitive! It's pretty funny as long as you realize it's all designed to keep the game "interesting."
its not rocket science re.how some get high rtings.in any pool of 500 there are gonna be people at the top points and people at th ebottom.someone is gonna be more lucky than the rest.add the skill aspect of this gam e and u have the 1000 rank players.
"I keep track of it all the time" Then post the data and I'll be so kind as to analyze it statistically. Assuming you don't just mean you keep track in your head. Sometimes it's in your favor and sometimes not? Randomness can be described exactly the same way. And randomness involves streaks. People tend to see patterns where there are none. Which is why you have to keep track on paper. Human memory / judgment can't be trusted when it comes to these sorts of things.
This site cannot roll fair games. You cannot tell me the dice are random. All games are rigged and fixed.
There is no conspiracy theory here. We now know that the dice throw is not random. This is the common consensus and the feeling is spreading rapidly among the discontent fellow players. You can appreciate that many players can’t join the conversation here and make their voice heard due to lack of English language. I have been advised by an expert software writer that it is very likely that the source code has been written down to make the game more exciting by achieving certain moves or the frequency of the moves, otherwise the less experienced players will not survive and the FlyorDie site will lose participants. I was told that there is very little one can’t do with source code nowadays. However, having said all these it would be more pleasing experience for very many of us playing here if the frequency of the highly improbable events will happen less frequently and the win and lose rates are not regulated. Meaning one can’t win 7 or 8 successive games or vice versa. I am sure that this will make players happier. Let’s not delay it happening any longer.
Is it possible to view all of my results, not just my most recent ones? Surprised this thread is still continuing tbh. Seems neither side will agree on anything.
"We now know that the dice throw is not random." Know? As in, you can prove it with data? "However, having said all these it would be more pleasing experience for very many of us playing here if the frequency of the highly improbable events will happen less frequently and the win and lose rates are not regulated. Meaning one can’t win 7 or 8 successive games or vice versa." In other words, you want it NOT to be random? Streaks of 7 and 8 are supposed to happen occasionally with randomness. If they can't happen, then you don't have randomness, you have a game rigged not to have streaks. Is that what you want? "Seems neither side will agree on anything." Look, the "it's rigged" side might be right, I haven't even played backgammon on here. But all I see are bold claims with zero data/numbers to back it up, and so my first reaction is skepticism. I don't think the people saying it's rigged understand probability or statistics.
fstal86 you write as if you are a Flyordie employee or spokesperson. It seems that you are not bothered with what all the others are experiencing with the game and honestly I can't see your point of defending so boldly. Can you yourself prove with data that the dice throw is random? We will never know unless Flyordie reveals this information. There was a question above ''''@ Dear Flyordie, at the time i was reading on the site you provide me and that it is really useful . So let me ask you if which way you are using to generate random numbers ?????'''' the question was never addressed by Flyordie. Will it ever be addressed?? Let's have a look at the examples below to illustrate how the same game can be different. a) Backgammon on my mobile telephone. I see my winning chances are greater. If I was to lose most games I would delete the app, leave negative feedback and would not bother with it again and move on to another. The app developer would like to sell the app and the source code is written accordingly. b) Strip backgammon. Having downloaded one of these some while back I also see that the player is given favorable dice throw to enjoy the strip backgammon. It wouldn't be strip backgammon otherwise. c) Hoyle Backgammon. Playing against your pc where the game becomes more challenging but not as playing against a human. d) Flyordie experience. I feels it is much more advanced version of Hoyle game. I strongly believe that the dice throw is not random and the games are rigged in order to keep the players addicted to the game and to the web site. The more players means the more advertising or more revenue. As I said above the source codes can be written in any way one wishes depending on one's motive or purpose. Although circumstantial evidence but good enough to believe having played several thousand games and seen many players sharing the same experience. We may not be good script writers and it may look as if we are contradicting ourselves but we are trying to mean and point to the same that makes us unhappy playing backgammon here for the reasons described. Judging by the length of this thread and the other threads on this subject it is not in Flyordie's best interest to change the game play.
I'm the farthest thing from a FoD spokesperson. I'm just picking apart bad arguments. You could say I'm a spokesperson for math and reasoning (not that I'm the best representative). "As I said above the source codes can be written in any way one wishes depending on one's motive or purpose" Yes, a FoD programmer *can* make it non-random. Just like if you own a kitchen knife, you *can* stab someone if you want to. That doesn't mean you're guilty of stabbing someone. Your owning a knife only infinitesimally increases the probability that you stabbed someone, so it's not even worth mentioning in an argument. Likewise, your quote doesn't add anything to your argument. "Can you yourself prove with data that the dice throw is random? We will never know unless Flyordie reveals this information." Since I've never played FoD Backgammon, I've never collected any data. But as I've offered a few times in this thread, if anyone has data they want to share with me, I can analyze it. If no one has data, well then, their beliefs aren't rational. When you play your games, type in a notepad file the result of each roll. Also when it's a critical situation, record whether the roll helps you or hurts you, along with how many rolls would have helped you. That's what I would do if I played often and were suspicious.
Forgot to address: "Flyordie experience. I feels it is much more advanced version of Hoyle game. I strongly believe that the dice throw is not random and the games are rigged in order to keep the players addicted to the game and to the web site." If that's the case, they're doing a bad job of it, no? Because you're all complaining. Randomness keeps it addicting enough btw. That's why weak players are still willing to play for money. Randomness disguises just how big their long-run disadvantage is to a superior player. Same in poker. If not for variance, there would be hardly any weak players playing for money. How many bad Chess players are willing to bet with a stranger on a Chess match? Randomness is also addicting enough to make slots players donate their retirement savings to the machines.
In my case, I believe the dice are rigged against me. Playable doubles are common for my opponents, and rare for me. I often get double sixes while I am on the bar, the six point blocked. This is frustrating. I blieve I am a faily good player, but this site is somehow unfair. How do I get the server to show some mercy?
My rate was 862. Then I started to lose, lose, and lose. 5 days after 862, my rate went down to ZERO!!!! I can't say I'm a bad player... I really don't beleive that dices are ramdom.
I have lost 5 consecutive games in similar fashion tonight. The dice favoured my opponents and gave them enough doubles that there was no way of winning the games. Most unlikely positions and they got the perfect dice to beat me. It was as if a hidden hand controlled the game and hit the most unlikely single stones. If any of you find a better backgammon web site please let me know.
>It was as if a hidden hand controlled the game and hit the most unlikely single stones. ... :D Yes. This will be added to OP's list of favourite comments.
There is not much point in arguing this without evidence - one side saying its fixed and the other denying it - but all said in a vacuum. Playing for quite a while now it seemed to me that some of what happened in terms of rolls seemed to be incredible. But I thought it could be false impressions. So I decided to start recording all rolls. I now have a database in a spreadsheet of over 300 hundred games and more than 10000 rolls. The main thing I wanted to look at was doubles 1/1, 2/2 etc since they seem to unduly influence results. In the real world with actual physical die we should, statistically have doubles being rolled 16.67% of the time - 1 in 6. But (according to my data) we have doubles being rolled 20.3% of the time - a little over 1 in 5. Now that doesn't seem like much of a difference but one extra double per game would be enough in most cases to salvage the play of even the most incompetent of players. My impression is that the system has some mechanism such that it often determines who will win even before battle commences - I call this the
designated winner.
IF the designated winner gets a double at the appropriate times along with one or two helpful rolls they get a huge advantage. Given the unlikely preponderance of doubles in the game, it seems to be very likely that this is what happens. Why is a different issue. I've also been able to demonstrate to my satisfaction from the data collected that there is some interference in the results when the
designated loser
is caught on the bar. For example,statistically, if you are trying to come back on when there is one spot open, you should achieve that after two rolls 50% of the time. But in FlyOrDie, its much worse than that. So I think I have the data that proves to my mind that the system is designed to achieve a pre-determined outcome in many games. But of coarse the OPERATOR will continue to dispute this and there's not much that can be done about that. Still I urge other players to start recording the rolls they get and checking if they get similar results to mine. In the end if we are getting doubles every 5 rolls instead of every 6, its either programmed to do that or its a monumental programming error.
Just one question: what would be the point of such a system? Would you implement such a system if you were a backgammon game site operator?
I can think of a couple of reasons why someone might want to implement such a system. Others in this thread have already alluded to a possible commercial interest in tilting the play one way or the other. As a programmer myself I could envisage others just doing it because it can be done and seeing how much they can get away with. I don't know exactly why it is being done but that it is being done seems to me to be unassailable. Anyone who plays here for even a short while will be aware of the jaw-dropping rolls that change a game. I play a little game within a game, trying to predict the next throw when games get to their crucial phases. Its disconcerting how often it can be predicted. Just one other point that I neglected to mention earlier. From my statistics of past throws, I have found that 6/6 comes up almost 4% of the time when statistically it should be slightly less than 3% of the time. This only makes sense when you realise that 6/6 is one of the best ways to help a struggling
designated winner
.
I think that 10,000 rolls is not enough for a true statisic. I've seen video poker simulations for a 100% payback machine that showed a need for over 40,000 plays to get back to even money.
There are two different things that you who complain are mixing up continuously: 1. The random generator is not truly random. Yes, it's a pseudorandom generator that from a statistical point of view fulfills the requirements for throwing a dice. There is a plenty of mathematical analyses on pseudorandom generators out there so we won't go into any debate based on psychologically distorted human feelings. 2. We fix the dice in favor of your OPPONENT. Please note: it's ALWAYS the opponent who is favored. To create such a system would be: - totally impossible (it's ALWAYS the OPPONENT, remember?) - totally insane - totally waste of time Also: If the random number generator was biased and did not fulfill the statistical criteria for throwing a dice, that would be still perfectly OK, because ALL players throw the SAME dice, so chances would be equal for both playing parties.
"We fix the dice in favor of your OPPONENT. " At no time did I make that assertion. Indeed there have been more than one occasions when I have apologised to or commiserated with opponents for the embarrassingly and unbelievably good rolls I've received in this or that game. I've talked about the system regularly selecting a
designated winner
and clearly I've often been that
designated winner
and well as the
designated loser
. " that would be still perfectly OK, because ALL players throw the SAME dice" Not really. That's true if there was no predetermination. But if, as seems likely, the deviation from standard chance is due to the need to help struggling players, then the preponderance of doubles and especially 6/6 doesn't even out for all players all the time.
Re: "the preponderance of doubles and especially 6/6 doesn't even out for all players all the time." What does this even mean? "all the time"??? No, it doesn't even out "all the time". It will even out in the long run. That's what luck games are about. Sometimes luck is on your side, sometimes not. We do not "designate" any winner. But I know who does, her name is Fortuna. Also, you recorded your games and now you imply that's the case "for all players". How do you know? We can implement a system where you get all possible rolls like a stack of cards. You can roll (play out) whichever card you want. That system would be even "for all players all the time". It shouldn't be called Backgammon, but who cares, if you want to play by such rules. Anyway, I will post analysis of the recent Backgammon tournament, so you can see for yourself how we fix the dice.
Anlyzis of Backgammon Tournament on 2014-11-19
45
players played a total of
152
matches. Dice were rolled
6631
times, that resulted in
1082
doubles, out of which
194
were double-sixes. 6631 is a very high number, it's well over a few dozens, it's plenty! Actually, it's so close to infinity that all results MUST match the theoretical value calculated from probabilities! Let's check it out: Clearly, we had to dial down a notch the number of double-sixes we give away, because
mlh55
measured a too high value (see previous posts). It's still a bit higher than the expected number (184), but I hope we can get away with it. To compensate this, the number of doubles is a bit lower than expected (1105), so we took away two doubles for every duoble-six we gave. Now, let's see if we were able to fix the dice so our precious designated winners would win!
TÜRKIYE
won the tournaments, he has the highest number of rolls:
219
He rolled
35
doubles (should have been 37),
3
double-sixes (should have been 6). Nice! We didn't want him to win at all! We did take away half of his double-sixes! But he is too good, we will have to give him even less double-sixes next time.
yossuf
:
210
rolls,
40
doubles (vs 35),
5
double sixes (vs 6). Well, you should have beaten
TÜRKIYE
! Shame on you! However, the biggest disappointment was
JEAN GABIN
and
GRAND PRIX
!
JEAN GABIN
, you were given
9
double-sixes, the most among all players! And all you could do is a lousy 33rd place?? Ok, maybe we gave you a bit too few doubles in total (
25
). For the
171
rolls you had you should have got 29 doubles. But you got
9
double-sixes, man! Instead of 4.75, we almost doubled your chances for a D6! (Actually, we did double your chances, but due to a bug in the game 9.5 was rounded downwards, so you just missed your 10th D6) And you
GRAND PRIX
! You were given
8
double-sixes (the second highest number of D6's),
32
doubles in total. For the
144
rolls you had, you should have got only 24 doubles and 4 D6's. We wanted you to win sooooo bad! Because of your nick name! And you just won't deliver! 37th??? Really? Even
can5457
finished before you:
174
rolls,
23
doubles (instead of 29),
4
D6's (instead of 5). That's pathetic! We either suck so bad at fixing matches or you who we favor just don't listen. Don't you want to win? Disclaimer: By disclosing how we fix the dice I risk getting fired. So this message will self-destruct in a few hours. If it didn't then they might have fired me before that.
I forgot to add this to the previous post: The probability of having at least 9 double-sixes in 171 rolls is about 5%. The probability of finding someone having at least 9 double-sixes among 45 people is about 90% (+/-5% depending on the exact number of individual rolls).
It is impossible for the dice on here to be random I have just had the ultimate example - the six home points covered by just twelve stones straight from the start Statistically possible maybe - a genuine example of random dice - surely not Will the operators of the site please give a clear statement regarding that the dice are arranged and not truly random? There are far too many unlikely escapes with the only dice possible followed by repeated doubles to fill in as quickly as possible to be believed How many times have you seen the only escape possible followed by a double of an occupied point?
I am sorry, but are you suggesting that the "six home points" can not be covered by just twelve stones ? Or what do you mean by "the six home points covered by just twelve stones straight from the start" ?
Apart from stating the absolutely obvious There are six points where you can get off the bar - the six point being occupied at the start. I was given double 5 - not much to do apart from cover the two point Opponent gets 3-1 to cover my five point I get a second double 5 - which means I g=have to leave an exposed stone (work it out for yourself) Now for the unsurprising bit if you accept the dice on here are not random Opponent hits the exposed stone and my next three throws are all against the covered 6 and five points (after which I know what the outcome has been arranged to be) - My opponents throws are unsurprisingly exactly what it required to cover exposed point with multiple doubles and other suitable throw So the game is over and I have made the only two possible moves available to me Statistically possible maybe - believable certainly not Try playing on a real board with real dice and see if this can actually happen Please - write something to convince me the dice on here are not manipulated !!!!!!!
i'm sorry but there is something weird about the game, and i can easily think of a reason why, if your rating moves up and down then you keep coming back to try and move up. thus increasing the ad revenue. the game feels fixed like this to me.im either unbeatable of cant win a game as i move first up and up the ratings then down and down. statisticly i'm sure it all adds up in the end to an even distribution but the game is fixed man.
As here it seems that the operator reads the message, I'll put one here that I consider very important, even though another matter. The button "give up" can only be active when the opponent offer double the bet. It is absurd, a player to take a risky strategy to be able to block the opponent's stones, with the goal of winning a backgammon, and the opponent can give up just losing simply. The solution to this problem is simple, inactivate the button "give up" until there is a fold proposition bet. SIMPLE! SIMPLE! SIMPLE!
Ha-Ha-Ha..... veeeery funny. I almost got smiled. You are explaining the mistakes of your software and trying to see logic. And what about throwing almost every time 6-6 when somebody hit his opponent and only the 6th numbers is occupied in opposite's side. I am not talking about my "luck", I spot it came to my opponents too. Did you understand? Imagine the starting position how you have 5 pieces in your own side and when you hit some piece of the opponent he is waiting everything except 6. And he got 6-6 almost every time at least once. Same if you fill 4 and 6, he got EXACTLY 4-6 or 4-4, 6-6. But let's talk about the probability with some cheap jokes...... Someone always will laugh with you. Ha-Ha-Ha.
It all boils down to money. Of course the site wants games to be close and exciting with amazing comebacks! Why? Simple. It keeps people in the game and on the site longer. Why is that desired? Simple. The site can charge more money for their ads if they show that people are on site longer thus exposing them to the advertisers product. Do believe that Presidents, Kings and heads of states, as well as your every day man have been murdered for money throughout history, but that man wouldn't "fix" a backgammon program for the same motive, is silly and naive.
1
I was way ahead in a game when my opponent captured one of my discs. He had the 6 and the 4 covered only. It took my 5 rolls to get my disc out, allowing my opponent to catch up. Thats when I finally was convinced that there is something wrong.
If I am winning and my opponent has to get the perfect roll with both dice, he/she will get it a good amount of the time. I have been playing backgammon for over 30 years and have never seen anything like this dice program. It really is pathetic. I will not ever play on this site again. When these things keep happening in my favor I get embarrassed and offer a draw to my opponents. Come on guys, don't embarrass us and fix it for the good players willing to stay on this site. Thank you
I will add one more: I will block 5 of my inside points and my opponent will get in on the first try with doubles. This happened to me twice in one game! In fact getting in with doubles is very common for the losing player.
Interesting reading in this topic. I've played for a few months and am still wondering why I'm being punished. (Could it be the atheist logo?) Two things that I find odd (besides my enduring win lose cycle of about ten games): 1- I can't remember the last time I was able to re-enter on the first role with three or four open points. (Aren't the odds favorable for re-entry? 2- Why are my opponents almost always able to re-enter on the first role even with only one point open and most often with doubles? My wife thinks it's because you are handicapping me. Ha!
I just finished a game immediately after posting a message under this topic explaining my bewilderment if not total disappointment of having my opponents re-enter on the first try with doubles. Guess what? Yes, it happened again... bizarro.......
The dice are not generated from a very good random number generator. Far too many doubles and stupid perfect throws are generated and the difficulty getting back on is not random. Everything you note is correct, I suspect somebody else hit the nail on the head, they want lots of people on here playing for a long time for advertising revenue. Novice players would leave quick if miracle wins did not occur and a small amount of experts would be left.
It is amazing with these dice....For awhile all the numbers fall your way, then, forget about it.
The dice were different when I use to play before....Now the majority of players are not rated very high...Before many players had high ratings.... As anyone who has played many times knows, no matter which moves you choose you at times would still be hit and lead to a loss.. It is still a fun game, but frustrating at times.
I have taken probability classes in college and I remember quite a bit! Enough to be suspicious about the dice. Let me explain: yes it is possible to flip a coin 10 times and land on heads 10 times. However, the probability of this happening is 1/2^10, or approximatively 0.1%. Now the reason why I'm getting very suspicious is that I seem to get runs of several games, more than 10 where I win almost every game. I get dice that seem almost perfect and I keep winning. A couple of days later, I get the exact opposite: loss after loss after loss. I haven't changed strategy or anything. I always seem to get the worst dice. This is possible but very very unprobable. We're talking less than 1% probability.
I don't expect to win against a better player, but like to try and gain experience from it. Yesterday I had three games with a good lead on pips, decided I was able to run for home. My opponent was was humble with his win and said his luck was almost unbelievable. After my bid to run I was hit with 2 double sixes 2 double 5's and a double 4. Although this was the extreme it has happened on many occasions. Yesterday was the same, an opponent with 1 on he bar, me throwing off my throw off left just the 6 point blank. He entered with a double 6 and threw 2 more consecutive doubles and wiped me out with a final double four. Hmmm
This has happened to me fairly often as well. When playing for real, I have never seen the kinds of throws that I see here on this site. This leads me to believe that the "random" generator used here is not very good. Or that there is, perhaps an additional "random" factor in the programming which determines which players will win and which not. I like the look of this site but it's game programming leaves a lot to be desired. Other sites don't have the look, but have better programming.
I don't believe the dice are fixed, but the random bit seems unstable. I have just had four games on the trot where I was ahead on pips. In all four games both opponents threw 4 consecutive doubles two of which were sixes.
In real life 70% of the games are more or less boring, 20% are exciting, 5% are really WOW. And then there are 5% of the games and situations that you feel overwhelmed by coincidence and, whether you win or you loose you have to tell your friends about the other day. This last category holds for at least 30% of the fly or die backgammon games. What is the motivation for this “scripted reality”? Is real life not good enough for the virtual generation? Is it not exciting enough for a German or English small town boy to play against Arabs, Turks or Greeks, the inventors of the game. I am deeply frustrated by these dubious attempts to pimp the game.
Right you are: There is always a proability: And it is the nature of the game to calculate on that issue. More over there is a great difference in a probability like let´s say 20/36 and 11/36. Why these two probabilities? Because it is the probabitity difference between entering from the bar with 1 open space and 2 open spaces. If you experience yourself in a 20/36 probability situation you calculate with succes 55% of the time. If your rate in entering from the bar in that situation over time - maybe 100-200 observations - 5000 throwes maybe - is only 10% or 20%... either you calculated wrong... or something ELSE is wrong!! I have made stats on 6-6 twice over 1000 throwes. OK: In the name of the law of big numbers it should be 5000. That´s why I have done it twice! The probability for 6-6 is: 1/36 - which means it should occure 27,7777 - let´s say 28 times in 1000 throwes. Both times the number was over 50!! -And I`m so shure that if some of you made the same stats the same way it will have the same result.... And why is that? It is because 6-6 is the far most voluntile throw, you can observate: Either it is very good - or it is very bad! That means again that in games with 6-6 - or several 6-6! -there is a tendency towards more luck and less calculation. If you want your SITE to have many costumers, so that you can earn more money by selling more expencive commercials, you want the luckthing to be a important feature, because it makes weaker players - there is more weak players/there is less strong players - win more!! Soooo ... Make some stats and we will talk fact´s instead of this ridiculous discussion!
Why would the operator want to fix the dice? Two possibilities which might increase revenue from PAYING subscribers: 1. Allow the PAYORS win with better dice? 2. Design for close exciting games to heighten user interest?
so schlecht/not good counting. generator creates single game with more than 1000 throws but we play usually less than 100 ... we can't check the generator like you do it. Try add to your sum another 100 000 throws 6-6 with "real probability =2,78%" (2800). Result? (100+2800/106 000 = 2,83% ?! error? :-) or Big Data? add 1 000 000 => 2,79% !! simply facts about "unlucky" throws.